November 22, 2020

Current Doubling Time for US COVID 19 Deaths Has Dropped from October High.

I calculate and plot the doubling time in days averaged over a moving 7-day period. Doubling time based on the previous seven days average as of 12/29/2020 was 102 days, passing through 338,000 deaths. A graph of the doubling time is shown here. 

Previous noted from mid-October: The United States has not really recovered from the first wave which got worst in the month of July and into early August. Doubling time is calculated for each day using the rule of 70, and then averaged over the previous 7 days. 

Indeed, sadly as we pass into 2021 the doubling time for the number of known COVID19 deaths in the United States has dramatically decreased from its October value when it rose to just above 200 days. The acceleration of pandemic spread among groups who do not believe in pandemic urgency has accelerated the growth in the total case number and this is now resulting in the increased rate of deaths in the United States. Currently, the rate of doubling means that we will reach over 600,000 deaths in the United States in just over three months from now unless the rate of COVID19 infection is reduced by public mitigation measures.

Please, wear a mask.  

(Many deaths in some states were being classified as "pneumonia" previously, and are not part of the COVID19 official deaths count, so more deaths have occurred from COVID19 in the United States than the CDC data indicate.) 

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