September 22, 2020

Current Doubling Time for the Number of Deaths in the United States from COVID19.

The graph below is based on confirmed COVID19 death data reported from the CDC. 

These numbers may lag slightly behind other US reporting sources and will underestimate the actual current death total from COVID19. For that reason, I have calculated and plotted the doubling time in days averaged over a moving seven day period. Doubling time as of 9/21/2020 was 180 days. The United States has not really recovered from the first wave which got worst in the month of July and into early August. The doubling time has again started to lengthen but is also potentially on the edge of dropping again. The next two weeks will reveal if outbreaks in the South, SouthWest, and Central States and the attempts at face-to-face schooling will decrease the death doubling time again. 

(Many deaths in some states are being classified as "pneumonia", and are not part of the COVID19 official deaths count, so far more deaths have occurred from COVID19 in the United States than CDC data indicate.) 





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