By the end of Monday 22nd February 2021, we will pass through and above 500,000 deaths from COVID19 in the United States. I calculate and plot the doubling time in days averaged over a moving 7-day period. Doubling time, based on the previous seven days average, as of the end of 2020 had dropped below100 days. The doubling time for US deaths from COVID19 is increasing again early in 2021, as seen in the current graph below.
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| Changes in doubling time (days) for deaths from COVID19 in the United States. |
The United States has not really recovered from the first wave which got worst in the month of July and into early August. Doubling time is calculated for each day using the rule of 70, and then averaged over the previous 7 days.
Currently, the rate of doubling means still means that we will reach over 600,000 deaths in the United States by the end of April 2021 unless the rate of deaths can be decreased by public health actions and vaccination. We will pass 500,000 official COVID19 deaths in the United States early the week of February 22nd. Possibly by the end of Monday.
Please, wear a mask.
(Many deaths in some states were being classified as "pneumonia" previously, and are not part of the COVID19 official deaths count, so more deaths have occurred from COVID19 in the United States than the CDC data indicate.)
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