November 22, 2020

Current Doubling Time for the Number of COVID 19 Deaths in the United States is Decreasing.

The graph below is based on confirmed COVID19 death data reported from the CDC. 

These numbers may lag slightly behind other US reporting sources and will underestimate the actual current death total from COVID19. For that reason, I have calculated and plotted the doubling time in days averaged over a moving seven day period. Doubling time based on the previous seven days average as of 11/16/2020 was 142 days, passing through 246,000 deaths. As of 11/22/2020 this has rapidly dropped to 119 days doubling time passing through 255,000 deaths from COVID10. A graph of the doubling time is shown here. 

(Previous noted from mid-October: The United States has not really recovered from the first wave which got worst in the month of July and into early August. The doubling time has again started to lengthen but is also potentially on the edge of dropping again. The next two weeks will reveal if outbreaks in the South, SouthWest, and Central States and the attempts at face-to-face schooling will decrease the death doubling time again. Doubling time is calculated for each day using the rule of 70 for each day and then averaged over the previous 7 days. )

Indeed, sadly as we pass into November 2020 the doubling time for the number of known COVID19 deaths in the United States has dramatically decreased from its October value when it rose to just above 200 days. The acceleration of pandemic spread among groups who do not believe in pandemic urgency has accelerated the growth in the total case number and this is now resulting in the increased rate of deaths in the United States. 

Please, wear a mask.  

(Many deaths in some states were being classified as "pneumonia" previously, and are not part of the COVID19 official deaths count, so more deaths have occurred from COVID19 in the United States than the CDC data indicate.) 

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