November 2020: The Rule of 70 and Why Your Hospitals are Feeling the COVID Tsunami Second Wave

Math helps us understand disease spread in populations. A historical view of the rise in cases of COVID19 as the first wave hit in March 2020. The apparent and surprising rise in cases after a long period of just a few cases is typical of the exponential nature of pandemic disease spread in populations. US data seems to have an instant-looking start because there was no significant amount of patient testing, then testing is being increased. Back in March, the actual cases in a population spreading COVID19 were increasing at 12% a day, which the Rule of 70 tells us is a doubling every 6 days. (Graph by KPMitton from CSSEGIS COVID19 data )

1/11/2020 UPDATE: 

This is an update of a posting I wrote back in March 2020 in the first wave of COVID19 just rising mostly in states where COVID19 first arrived. We are in danger again of having local hot spot states now like North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, where the percent daily increases in cases exceed 5% per day. Early in 2020, we were up to a national average of 12% per day in the first wave. Rates one month ago had dropped well below 1% but now the average US daily increase in cases over last week had risen to 1.5 % per day, but that is the average of all 50 states. In hot states now we are having community locations with over 5% daily increases, and the experience in March will now happen again in November and December 2020. When you have a constant percent daily increase in case number, this percentage factor leads to an acceleration in numbers that can easily and suddenly fill a hospital. Here is the reason, the simple math behind it all. The Rule of 70.

In search of reliable mobile fast tests for COVID-19 Antibodies.

 

While all research labs were shut down for a few months, late March to mid-June 2020, for all but COVID19 related research, I turned my biochemical skills to a project to help evaluate one version of a serum COVID-19 antibody test that can use a single droplet (10 microliters) of blood from a finger-poke and which gives a reliable result in 15 minutes. Also without using any powered equipment. Cheap, mobile reliable tests like this can be used in almost any location. The problem in January to March 2020 was that many unreliable kits for such tests were rolled out mostly by firms looking to cash in, even selling online to the public. The main problem with those test kits was that they either 1) fail to detect antibodies to COVID19 when people have them, or 2) they say you are positive for antibodies to COVID19 BUT you are not.

Using finger-tip blood for tests of this type is very possible, and in fact, there are FDA and European Union approved tests that use this format "lateral flow test" for AIDS and Legionnaires Disease. However, those tests have been around for some time and were of course tested to confirm their reliability. So I approached a particular manufacturer of antibody-based research reagents when I heard they were turning their expertise to making a reliable family of tests for COVID19 antibodies in blood. 

How the Family of a Bioscientist Shops and Cleans Groceries in the Midst of The American Pandemic of 2020.

I know you have anxiety about shopping for food for you and your family. I know you are scared. You can be afraid. Fear is normal when there is danger, but stop thinking about it and prepare to get your groceries. You can do this. You can order them for delivery, but it is true that delivery is not smooth in all parts of the United States. If you can find a grocery store that is using staff to control traffic of shoppers: distance control, limited numbers of people in stores, a system for sterilizing wagons for you, separation in check out lines, procedures for protecting you and the cashiers, then you can shop yourself as well. This too may vary around the country. In either case, what do we do when we get our food at our door? Well, in our household we wash them, in warm water with regular dish soap. NOT surface cleaners. DISH SOAP. The CDC does not recommending washing food packaging or foods with household surface cleaners because those would be toxic chemicals if they contaminate your food. 

I know that viruses are actually very susceptible to soap, detergents, and their main molecular components dissolve nicely in soapy water. Make sure you have enough dish soap to make suds, bubbles. Of course, any food you cook will destroy the virus too, but you can still wash your veggies for your salads and for safe handing in your own home doing food preparation. Make sure you rinse off all your dish soapy water well, but just use dish soap and do not use surface cleaners on your food.

You should be able to also use tap water washing without any soap at all, but I have heard from persons who have lots of anxiety about shopping for fresh food, and dish soap in water may help you feel less of that anxiety. 

Again, just use dish soap made for washing food dishes, and just use the dish soap in lots of water. Rinse the wash water off. Let your produce drip dry a few minutes before you try to place them in the fridge. 

Here is a little video on how. It's easy. 

You can do this. You can :).




Here are some updated guidelines from the US CDC regarding COVID-19 and food. So far there is no evidence that the spread of COVID-19 happens from food or the risk is extremely low. 
US CDC Food Guide for COVID-19

Manned Space Flight from the United States begins again. Watch Live on NASA TV successful!!

You can watch the launch about to happen from Florida here on NASA TV.

Using the Space-X rocket. Two astronauts. Bob and Doug reach orbit. 

Falcon 9 launch smooth. 

See more at NASA TV using the link below:


https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/#public

VIDEO: Why Coronavirus (COVID19) is not like the Flu, and how you can save lives staying home.

So, you are young or annoyed about wearing a face mask in public places like stores and airplanes? Do you think this pandemic is no different than the common flu? Well, you are wrong and with two simple numbers, I can show you how YOU can be responsible for either infecting and killing several fellow humans or help spare them by breaking the chain.  These numbers are 1.4 and 3.  They are tiny numbers, but they explain why COVID19 is causing many of our most vulnerable citizens to lose their lives in ICUs all around the United States and the world. Mostly in the United States unfortunately where many people are refusing to help protect others. 

Covid-19 Fatality Rates as of April 19th, 2020

I have prepared two graphs using data available on April 19th, 2020 from the Our World In Data resource.

1) The first graph illustrates the United States COVID-19 fatalities from April 1 to April 19th compared to total World fatalities from this virus. These are based on confirmed case data.
On April 1st, the U.S fatalities were less than 10% of World fatalities. As of April 19th, U.S fatalities have increased to 25% of World fatalities.


2) The second graph compares the fatalities over time for many countries including the United States, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Brazil, China, India, South Korea. The useful information here for the U.S. is to note that the rate of fatalities in the United States has increased dramatically in just the last week and is the greatest rate worldwide as of April 19th.